The Polling Digest Data Hub


7-poll rolling average

Want a smoother model?  Here's our 7-poll rolling average.  The lightly-shaded tunnels are confidence intervals and show the margins of error for each data point.  It's not impossible for a party's actual vote share to be outside of this band, but at the 95% confidence level we've set, the chances of that happening are less than 1 in 20.

Who would make the Best Prime Minister?

YouGov asks voters who they think would run the country best, and this is what they think:

 

How do voters approve of the way Theresa May is doing her job?

Here are Opinium's collected approval ratings for Theresa May since she took office:


 

 

And in the same period, what do voters make of Jeremy Corbyn?


Scottish Independence polls of polls

Our poll of polls is essentially a 4-poll rolling average with some extra bits built into the model.

'Don't know' responses have been filtered out.


               

       Brexit tracker

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Here are all of YouGov's Brexit polls since the beginning of June.  Polls taken after the result ask whether voters think it is right or wrong for the country to have left the EU, and responses correspond to 'Leave' and 'Remain', respectively.


 

       Voter migrations

How have voters moved between parties since the election? Have a look for yourself:


Data from YouGov, 16-17 May 2017

Data from YouGov, 16-17 May 2017

 

Have Remainers changed their minds on Brexit?

Nope.

Data from YouGov


And have Leavers changed their minds? 

Also, nope.

Data from YouGov


Our poll of polls from Ipsos MORI, going all the way back to 1978!


 

Table of polls:


Date Con Lab LD UKIP Grn n Pollster ConLead
19/4/17 48 24 12 7 2 1727 YouGov 24
18/4/17 46 25 11 8 4 1000 ICM 21
17/4/17 44 26 10 11 4 2052 ICM 18
13/4/17 44 23 12 10 4 2096 YouGov 21
13/4/17 46 25 11 9 4 2029 ComRes 21
13/4/17 38 29 7 14 5 2002 Opinium 9
6/4/17 42 25 11 11 3 1651 YouGov 17
2/4/17 43 25 11 11 4 2005 ICM 18
27/3/17 43 25 11 10 3 1957 YouGov 18
21/3/17 41 25 11 12 3 1627 YouGov 16
19/3/17 45 26 9 10 4 2012 ICM 19
17/3/17 42 26.5 12 10 4 2026 ComRes 15.5
17/3/17 42 28 8 13 3 2007 Opinium 14
15/3/17 41 28 7 12 6 1938 GfK 13
14/3/17 44 27 10 9 3 1631 YouGov 17
14/3/17 43 30 13 6 4 1032 Ipsos MORI 13
9/3/17 44 25 10 11 3 1598 YouGov 19
5/3/17 44 28 11 8 5 2011 ICM 16
28/2/17 42 25 11 12 4 1666 YouGov 17
22/2/17 41 25 11 13 3 2060 YouGov 16
19/2/17 44 26 8 13 4 2028 ICM 18
16/2/17 40 27 8 14 4 2004 Opinium 13
14/2/17 40 29 13 9 4 1044 Ipsos MORI 11
13/2/17 40 24 11 15 4 2052 YouGov 16
10/2/17 41 26 11 11 4 2021 ComRes 15
6/2/17 40 24 11 14 4 1704 YouGov 16
5/2/17 42 27 10 12 4 1984 ICM 15
3/2/17 37 30 8 14 5 2005 Opinium 7
31/1/17 40 26 11 12 4 1705 YouGov 14
24/1/17 40 24 10 14 3 1643 YouGov 16
22/1/17 42 26 10 13 5 2052 ICM 16
18/1/17 42 25 11 12 3 1654 YouGov 17
16/1/17 43 31 11 6 4 1132 Ipsos MORI 12
13/1/17 38 29 10 13 2 1177 Survation 9
12/1/17 38 30 7 14 4 2007 Opinium 8
10/1/17 39 28 11 13 3 1660 YouGov 11
8/1/17 42 28 9 12 4 2000 ICM 14
4/1/17 39 26 10 14 4 1740 YouGov 13
19/12/16 39 24 12 14 4 1595 YouGov 15
16/12/16 38 31 6 13 4 2000 Opinium 7
12/12/16 40 29 14 9 3 1003 Ipsos MORI 11
11/12/16 41 27 9 14 3 2049 ICM 14
5/12/16 42 25 11 12 4 1667 YouGov 17
29/11/16 39 27 9 14 4 1624 YouGov 12
27/11/16 44 28 7 12 4 2009 ICM 16
22/11/16 41 28 9 12 4 1693 YouGov 13
20/11/16 42 28 9 11 3 2031 ICM 14
18/11/16 41 29 7 12 4 2005 Opinium 12
15/11/16 42 28 8 11 4 1717 YouGov 14
14/11/16 42 33 10 7 4 1013 Ipsos MORI 9
4/11/16 40 32 6 13 4 2001 Opinium 8
1/11/16 41 27 10 11 3 1655 YouGov 14
30/10/16 43 27 8 12 5 2040 ICM 16
25/10/16 40 27 11 11 3 1655 YouGov 13
24/10/16 42 28 8 12 4 1509 BMG 14
21/10/16 39 30 6 13 4 2005 Opinium 9
20/10/16 42 26 8 12 5 1608 YouGov 16
17/10/16 47 29 7 6 4 1016 Ipsos MORI 18
12/10/16 42 28 9 11 3 1669 YouGov 14
9/10/16 43 26 8 11 6 2017 ICM 17
30/9/16 38 31 5 16 4 2005 Opinium 7
29/9/16 39 30 8 13 3 1658 YouGov 9
23/9/16 39 29 8 12 4 2015 Survation 10
23/9/16 39 28 8 13 5 2026 BMG 11
23/9/16 41 26 8 14 4 2015 ICM 15
21/9/16 39 30 8 13 3 3285 YouGov 9
14/9/16 40 34 6 9 5 1000 Ipsos MORI 6
14/9/16 38 31 7 13 4 1732 YouGov 7
11/9/16 41 29 9 13 4 2013 ICM 12
5/9/16 40 29 7 13 3 1616 YouGov 11
28/8/16 41 27 9 13 4 2040 ICM 14
23/8/16 40 29 8 13 3 1660 YouGov 11
22/8/16 40 31 7 13 3 5260 Ashcroft 9
17/8/16 38 30 9 13 4 1677 YouGov 8
15/8/16 45 34 7 6 4 1017 Ipsos MORI 11
15/8/16 40 28 8 14 4 2010 ICM 12
9/8/16 38 31 8 13 4 1692 YouGov 7
8/8/16 39 26 10 11 7 1199 TNS 13
2/8/16 42 28 8 12 3 1722 YouGov 14
26/7/16 40 28 8 13 4 1680 YouGov 12
24/7/16 43 27 8 13 4 2012 ICM 16
22/7/16 37 31 6 15 4 2231 Opinium 6
18/7/16 40 29 9 12 3 1815 YouGov 11
15/7/16 39 29 9 14 4 2027 ICM 10
11/7/16 36 35 11 8 4 1021 Ipsos MORI 1
10/7/16 38 30 8 15 4 2025 ICM 8
5/7/16 36 32 9 12 4 1008 Survation 4
3/7/16 37 30 8 15 4 1979 ICM 7
30/6/16 34 29 7 17 4 2006 Opinium 5
26/6/16 36 32 7 15 5 2001 ICM 4
25/6/16 32 32 9 16 4 1033 Survation 0
22/6/16 34 30 6 19 4 3011 Opinium 4
17/6/16 34 30 6 18 4 2006 Opinium 4
16/6/16 34 29 8 19 4 2046 ComRes 5
14/6/16 35 34 9 10 4 1257 Ipsos MORI 1
13/6/16 34 30 8 19 4 2001 ICM 4
13/6/16 34 33 9 14 5 1000 ICM 1
10/6/16 35 32 4 18 4 2009 Opinium 3
3/6/16 34 30 6 18 4 2007 Opinium 4
29/5/16 36 32 7 15 3 1004 ICM 4
29/5/16 36 31 7 17 4 2052 ICM 5
19/5/16 35 30 5 18 5 2008 Opinium 5
16/5/16 36 34 8 10 5 1002 Ipsos MORI 2
15/5/16 34 32 7 17 4 2048 ICM 2
15/5/16 36 34 7 13 4 1002 ICM 2
12/5/16 36 30 8 17 4 2043 ComRes 6
29/4/16 38 30 5 15 5 2005 Opinium 8
26/4/16 33 32 6 18 4 1492 BMG 1
26/4/16 30 33 6 20 3 1650 YouGov -3
18/4/16 38 35 6 11 3 1026 Ipsos MORI 3
17/4/16 36 31 7 16 4 2008 ICM 5
17/4/16 38 33 7 13 3 1003 ICM 5
14/4/16 35 30 8 16 4 2036 ComRes 5
12/4/16 31 34 8 17 3 1693 YouGov -3
1/4/16 33 32 5 17 4 1966 Opinium 1
29/3/16 36 31 7 16 5 1484 BMG 5
22/3/16 36 34 10 11 3 1023 Ipsos MORI 2
20/3/16 37 35 7 9 4 1002 ComRes 2
17/3/16 33 34 6 16 3 1691 YouGov -1
13/3/16 36 36 8 11 3 1001 ICM 0
10/3/16 38 29 7 16 4 2059 ComRes 9
23/2/16 37 30 8 16 3 3482 YouGov 7
23/2/16 38 30 5 16 5 1457 BMG 8
22/2/16 38 31 8 12 3 1000 ComRes 7
16/2/16 39 33 6 12 3 1001 Ipsos MORI 6
14/2/16 39 32 7 11 4 1004 ICM 7
12/2/16 41 27 9 15 3 2018 ComRes 14
4/2/16 39 29 6 18 3 1675 YouGov 10
28/1/16 39 30 6 17 3 1735 YouGov 9
25/1/16 40 31 7 11 4 1027 Ipsos MORI 9
24/1/16 37 32 6 12 4 1006 ComRes 5
17/1/16 40 35 6 10 3 1001 ICM 5
16/1/16 37 30 7 16 3 1017 Survation 7
15/1/16 40 29 7 16 3 2004 ComRes 11
14/1/16 39 31 6 14 3 2087 Panelbase 8
20/12/15 39 34 7 10 3 1003 ICM 5
18/12/15 39 29 6 17 3 1598 YouGov 10
18/12/15 38 30 5 16 5 1936 Opinium 8
14/12/15 38 31 9 9 6 1040 Ipsos MORI 7
13/12/15 37 33 7 11 5 1001 ComRes 4
11/12/15 40 29 7 16 3 2049 ComRes 11
1/12/15 41 30 6 16 3 1657 YouGov 11
24/11/15 38 29 6 17 3 4317 YouGov 9
22/11/15 40 29 8 11 3 1000 ComRes 11
20/11/15 42 27 7 15 3 2067 ComRes 15
17/11/15 41 34 7 7 4 1021 Ipsos MORI 7
17/11/15 37 30 6 16 3 1546 Survation 7
17/11/15 37 30 6 16 3 1504 BMG 7
15/11/15 39 33 7 12 3 1006 ICM 6
11/11/15 36 30 7 15 3 2007 Survation 6
27/10/15 37 31 6 15 5 1467 BMG 6
25/10/15 38 33 8 10 3 1002 ComRes 5
19/10/15 36 32 10 12 3 1021 Ipsos MORI 4
16/10/15 37 32 5 15 4 1934 Opinium 5
15/10/15 42 29 7 13 3 2051 ComRes 13
11/10/15 38 34 7 11 3 1002 ICM 4
30/9/15 37 31 7 17 2 2064 YouGov 6
28/9/15 39 30 9 12 4 1009 ComRes 9
23/9/15 39 34 9 7 4 1255 Ipsos MORI 5
22/9/15 37 32 9 13 3 1008 Survation 5
18/9/15 39 31 6 16 3 1601 YouGov 8
18/9/15 37 32 6 14 4 1942 Opinium 5
17/9/15 42 30 7 13 3 2015 ComRes 12
13/9/15 38 32 8 13 3 1006 ICM 6
4/9/15 38 32 6 13 4 1004 Survation 6
23/8/15 42 28 8 9 6 1001 ComRes 14
13/8/15 38 33 6 15 3 1007 Survation 5
13/8/15 40 29 8 13 4 2035 ComRes 11
9/8/15 40 31 7 10 4 1000 ICM 9
26/7/15 40 28 7 10 5 1001 ComRes 12
20/7/15 37 31 10 9 8 1026 Ipsos MORI 6
12/7/15 38 34 6 13 4 1005 ICM 4
28/6/15 39 27 9 11 6 1002 ComRes 12
16/6/15 39 30 9 8 6 1005 Ipsos MORI 9
14/6/15 37 31 8 13 5 1004 ICM 6
31/5/15 41 29 8 10 5 1000 ComRes 12
26/5/15 41 30 7 13 4 1709 YouGov 11
9/5/15 40 31 6 12 3 1027 Survation 9