May vs Corbyn: Survation

May vs Corbyn: Survation

Yesterday, Survation released its poll of the UK’s prominent politicians, including Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn, Tim Farron and Boris Johnson.  We highly recommend having a trawl through their results as this is a bumper crop of personality ratings.  But for now, we want to concentrate on the two big beasts: the Prime Minister and the Labour leader.

And what a poll it is.  In a way, it’s nothing earth-shattering.  Theresa May continues her honeymoon in public opinion, while Jeremy Corbyn remains unpopular.  But this poll really does highlight the gap between the two – a large contributor to which is the enormous unpopularity of the Labour leader.  Consensus in the Polling Digest office is that this poll probably has the worst numbers we’ve ever seen for a party leader.  How bad is it exactly?  Well, Survation asked respondents how favourable they saw each politician, and sorted them by age, gender, area, their 2015 vote, and so on.  In all, there were about 25 categories.  Of those 25, Jeremy Corbyn managed a net positive rating in 2.  His opposite number, Theresa May, managed to attain net positive ratings in every category, including - extraordinarily - those who voted Labour in the last general election.

Anyway, here are some of the key takeaways from this poll:

1.       Jeremy Corbyn is unlikely to bring in sufficient numbers of previous non-voters.  A key talking point in Camp Corbyn is that he is enthusing many people who felt too disengaged and disenfranchised to vote in 2015, and that they will vote for him at the next election.  The data from this poll, however, suggests this argument is problematic.  The Labour leader’s net favourability rating amongst this group – 2015 non-voters – stands at -15.7.  This doesn’t suggest that swathes of these people are mobilising in favour of Labour or its leader.

2.       Theresa May is 64 points more popular than Jeremy Corbyn.  Yes, you read that correctly.  The Prime Minister’s net favourability amongst the country is +33.6, while the Labour leader’s is -30.7.  Even taking into the usual caveats that the Prime Minister is new to the job and the Labour leader is currently in a somewhat precarious position within his party, this result is fairly astonishing.  Watch this space to see how soon – and how much – this gap narrows.  With the return of normal proceedings in Westminster in the autumn, be prepared to see Theresa May experience a more challenging environment.

3.       Theresa May is more popular in every age category.  Even with the youngest 18-24 group.  Her net rating amongst the 18-24s is +13.6, and among the 35-54 and 55+ categories, she polls at +30.1 and +51.8, respectively.  This compares to Jeremy Corbyn’s +2.8 rating among the 18-24 age group – incidentally, one of his two net positive ratings – and his scores of -33.7 and -53.1 in the 35-54 and 55+ groups.  As a result, the biggest gap between the two politicians is in the older age category, where Theresa May has a lead of 105 points.

4.       Jeremy Corbyn is more popular than Theresa May with 2015 Labour voters...just.  The Labour leader has a +8.6 net favourability rating among people who voted Labour at the last election, while May’s number is less, at 4.2.  Nevertheless, it is abnormal that a Conservative Prime Minister polls net positively with Labour voters; even more abnormal is that this Conservative Prime Minister polls within 5 points of the Labour leader among this group.

5.       Jeremy Corbyn is less popular in Scotland than in England.  And while his unpopularity is fairly even across the country, he is substantially more popular (or less unpopular) in London than elsewhere.  His rating in Scotland is -40.9 compared with -28.6 in England, while his ratings in the North, Midlands and South are all within the -25 to -34 range.  His net popularity in London, though, is higher, at -15.8, though perhaps that isn’t much to celebrate.

That's it for now.  For any number-crunchers reading this and who want more detail, here's our table of the most important data points from this poll.  Plus, if you want even more detail - just check out Survation's raw tables.

 

 

Theresa May

 

 

Group

Favourable

Unfavourable

Net

Neither

Total

53.2

19.6

33.6

23.8

Male

53

20.7

32.3

24

Female

53.3

18.6

34.7

23.6

18-34

39.6

26

13.6

27.3

35-54

49.6

19.5

30.1

27.3

55+

66.8

15

51.8

17.9

CON 2015

80.7

5.6

75.1

12.6

LAB 2015

36.4

32.2

4.2

30.8

LIB DEM 2015

69.3

15

54.3

13.2

UKIP 2015

53.6

16.5

37.1

25.1

OTHER 2015

43.6

35.2

8.4

21.4

Did not vote in 2015

38.3

24.5

13.8

27.6

AB

62.5

15.2

47.3

20.6

C1

51

21.2

29.8

23.6

C2

48.4

21.8

26.6

25.1

DE

43.8

22.6

21.2

29.6

London

60.7

12.9

47.8

24.1

Midlands

49.5

19.3

30.2

29.5

North

52.1

22.6

29.5

19.8

South

54.9

17.3

37.6

23.3

England

54

18.5

35.5

23.6

Scotland

46.4

25.5

20.9

28.1

Wales

35

34.5

0.5

27.7

NI

73

15.3

57.7

11.6

EURef Leave

58.2

16.3

41.9

23.7

EURef Remain

53.5

23.9

29.6

20.4

 

 

Jeremy Corbyn

 

 

Group

Favourable

Unfavourable

Net

Neither

Total

22.3

53

-30.7

21.3

Male

20.3

59.9

-39.6

17.5

Female

24.3

46.3

-22

24.8

18-34

35.2

32.4

2.8

24.9

35-54

20

53.7

-33.7

23.4

55+

14.7

67.8

-53.1

16.4

CON 2015

11.2

73.6

-62.4

13.9

LAB 2015

41.4

32.8

8.6

23

LIB DEM 2015

14.7

57.6

-42.9

25.6

UKIP 2015

7.6

69.4

-61.8

22.7

OTHER 2015

29.4

53.2

-23.8

16.9

Did not vote in 2015

23.1

38.8

-15.7

25.9

AB

20.4

56.8

-36.4

19.1

C1

23.3

50.1

-26.8

23.7

C2

17.6

59.7

-42.1

19.8

DE

28.2

46

-17.8

21.1

London

28.4

44.2

-15.8

23.6

Midlands

24.1

49.2

-25.1

24.3

North

20.1

53.6

-33.5

21.1

South

23.3

56.6

-33.3

17.2

England

23.4

52

-28.6

20.7

Scotland

16.1

57

-40.9

26.3

Wales

23.6

44.7

-21.1

28.8

NI

11.2

75.9

-64.7

12.8

EURef Leave

16.1

60.4

-44.3

21.8

EURef Remain

29.9

50

-20.1

18.5

 

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