May beats Corbyn among 2015 Labour voters

May beats Corbyn among 2015 Labour voters

A couple of days ago, YouGov released their latest Westminster voting intention numbers, which you can see on our website here – along with its effect on our rolling average model.  They also added in their latest net approval rating numbers.  You can see their data here, but before you do, take a look at our key conclusions.  

Our latest 4-poll rolling average model gives the Tories an 11-point lead.

1.       The Conservatives increase their lead.  In the last YouGov poll of voting intentions, the Conservatives notched up 38%, with Labour on 30%, giving them an 8-point lead.  This time around – from work carried out on 1616 voters on the 4th and 5th September – the Tories have an 11-point lead.  They increased their share by 2 points, putting them now on 40%, with Labour falling by a point, putting them on 29% of the vote.  The other parties remain fairly steady – the Lib Dems are on 7 points, UKIP is on 13 points (1 less than at the end of August) and the Greens have also fallen a point to 3%.

2.       The Conservatives are more popular among C2DE voters than Labour.  Though this may well be just a reflection of Labour’s fall in the polls generally, it perhaps ought to worry Labour that their core constituency – voters in lower socioeconomic groups – seems to be plumping for the Tories.  Within the C2DE categories, the Conservative Party runs at 34%, with Labour trailing on 29%; this gives the Tories a small but significant 5-point lead among this group.

3.       The voting intention breakdown by age is typical.  Labour enjoy a strong lead of 18 points among the 18-24 age group (44% to 26%) a lead of 3 points among the 25-49 category (35% to 32%).  Voters older than 49, however, move quickly towards the Tories.  They give them a 13-point lead among the 50-64s (41% versus 29%) and the Conservatives chalk up a significant victory among the 65+ age group – 54% to Labour’s 16% (giving them a 38-point lead).  This last data point is significant, as older voters tend to turn out more.  Indeed, at the last general election, 78% of over 65s voted, compared with only 43% of 18-24-year-olds.

4.       Theresa May’s lead over Jeremy Corbyn is still vast.  Voters were asked how well or badly they thought each candidate was doing.  Theresa May’s net approval was an impressive +31 points – still evidence, perhaps, of her continued honeymoon.  Jeremy Corbyn’s rating was almost equally as unimpressive – his net approval rating among all voters was -35.  May, therefore, has a 66-point lead over the Labour leader.

5.       What’s more, Theresa May beats Jeremy Corbyn in all voter categories.  Apart, of course, from those who intend to vote Labour at the next election.  The Prime Minister also has – significantly – leads among traditional Labour demographics.  May, for example, has a 25-point lead over Corbyn among the 18-24 age group (+7 versus -18).  Her leads over the Leader of the Opposition are 55 points and 52 points in the North and Scotland, respectively.  Among the C2DE group, it is an astonishing 63 points.  And, perhaps most damning of all, The Prime Minister is more popular with Labour voters than Jeremy Corbyn.  Those who voted Labour at the last general election gave Theresa May a small net approval rating of +4, but they gave Jeremy Corbyn a rating of -14, giving her a lead of 18 points. 

That’s it for this YouGov poll – we think those are the 5 key points you ought to know. If you enjoyed this, please do share it on Twitter or Facebook, email it to a friend, or – better still – sign up to our brand new Weekly Digest.  To subscribe, scroll down and fill out the form.  As ever, it’s a pleasure to give our readers the best analysis of public opinion, and the explosive success we’ve had over the last couple of weeks has been fantastic.  You keep reading – we’ll keep writing!

May vs. Corbyn: Ipsos, September 2016

May vs. Corbyn: Ipsos, September 2016

Public support for grammar schools

Public support for grammar schools