Voter Migrations

Voter Migrations

YouGov's last poll, conducted between the 3rd and 4th of January, gave the Conservatives another massive lead of 13 points. 

YouGov also asked people how they voted at the last election, on top of how they intend to vote now.  This question allows us to see how voters have 'migrated' from one party to the other since May 2015.  We think there are a few things to pick out:

1. The Lib Dems are struggling to hold on to as much of their 2015 vote as the other parties.  Only 60% of voters who voted orange last time round say they'll do so next time around.  And, interestingly, they seem to break for the Conservatives more than Labour: 20% of them say they'll go with the Tories, with only 10% saying they'd vote Labour.

2. 2015 Conservatives are sticking with the party.  85% of Tory 2015 voters still intend to vote for the party, compared with 72% for Labour.  However, this is lower than the almost 90% the Tories were getting in the autumn.  This may well reflect some tensions on the right of the party: these voters typically want Article 50 to be triggered quickly, and want Brexit to be a 'hard' one. 

3. UKIP's voters are coming back to the party.  Theresa May's initial honeymoon period, along with trouble with UKIP's leadership, meant that many of the party's voters went off to the Tories.  They seem to be slowly coming back, however: 69% of the party's 2015 voters now intend to vote UKIP again, compared with about 60-65% a couple of months ago.  

We hope you enjoyed this post - if you like what we do and want to support free, robust data journalism, please have a think about giving us a small donation.  The button is below and takes literally seconds; we'd be grateful for any amount!

A personal note

A personal note

Labour's NHS Crisis

Labour's NHS Crisis