Theresa's Full House

Theresa's Full House

A few days ago, YouGov released its usual poll for The Times, in which it asks voters how they would vote in an imminent general election, which issues they think are important, what they think of Brexit, and who they would prefer to be Prime Minister.  And because it gets us most page views, we'll be focusing on the latter in this short piece. 

1. Almost half of all voters prefer Theresa May to Jeremy Corbyn.  In this poll, which asks voters who they think would make the best Prime Minister and gives them a choice between the two main party leaders and (a mythical yet quite popular) 'Not Sure', 49% said they want May to stay on as Prime Minister, with only 15% wanting the Labour leader to head the government.  And at 36%, Not Sure is over twice as popular as Jeremy Corbyn.

2. Theresa May is preferred among all age groups.  Yes, even the youngest age group - traditionally the most pro-Corbyn voter group of them all - gives Theresa May the edge over her rival: 28% to 27%.  The fact that both leaders get such poor marks from young voters explains why apathy is so high: 45% of them said they weren't sure who they would prefer.  Turning to older voters, the Prime Minister's lead over the Labour leader gets progressively larger among older age groups: among the oldest category of voters that YouGov polls, the over-65s - Theresa May is massively preferred to Jeremy Corbyn: 75% to 7%, giving her a colossal margin of 68 points.  Don't forget that it is these older voters who turn out, too: 75% of these older voters say they intend to vote at the next election compared with only 40% for younger ones - this only amplifies the Prime Minister's margins.

3. The Prime Minister beats the Leader of the Opposition in all regions of the country, too: even in traditionally Labour parts of the United Kingdom - the North, London, and Scotland.  The numbers are below, and they're pretty devastating for Corbyn.

London

Rest of South

Midlands/Wales

North

Scotland

Theresa May

44%

56%

48%

45%

44%

Jeremy Corbyn

16%

11%

15%

17%

20%

Not Sure

40%

33%

37%

38%

36%

4. Theresa May's lead over Jeremy Corbyn is actually larger among working class voters than among middle class voters.  Voters in socioeconomic groups C2, D and E - working class voters - put Theresa May 36 points ahead of the Labour leader: 49% to 13%.  49% of middle class voters, meanwhile, prefer May over Corbyn, with 17% preferring Jeremy Corbyn.  Thus, while her lead among working class voters is 36 points, May beats Corbyn by only 32 points among middle class voters.

5. Not Sure beats Jeremy Corbyn in every single voter group.  What more is there to say?

 

Into the wilderness, and beyond

Into the wilderness, and beyond

Has Theresa May neutralised UKIP's threat to her party? Possibly

Has Theresa May neutralised UKIP's threat to her party? Possibly