End of January YouGov poll

End of January YouGov poll

Yesterday, YouGov released their last poll of January which was taken between 30th and 31st of the month.  You can see the tables here, but here's a quick roundup:

1. The Conservatives retain their huge lead.  This poll puts the Tories on 40%, with Labour dragging behind on 26% - though this is an improvement of 2 percentage points on the week before.  The Liberal Democrats are on a fairly normal 11% - up 1 from the last YouGov poll, while UKIP see a fall of 2 points, ending the month on 12%.  The Greens - as per usual - are level at 4%.  What does this mean for our rolling model?  Well, it means that the Tories have a lead of 15.75 points over their opposition.  This, in fact, is their second highest lead since the election, only after their lead of 16.25 points in mid-October.  Let's zoom out, though: speaking very, very broadly, the story of the last 5 months or so hasn't been a continued growth in support for the Conservatives - it's been the gradual yet seemingly unstoppable decline of Labour.  Since the Conservative Party's 'Theresa Bounce' in mid July where it jumped up 5 points in our model, the party's polling hasn't changed all that much in broad terms.  Labour, meanwhile, have been on the decline basically since the end of March 2016; our interactive poll of polls above makes this plain.

The story of the last 5 months...has been the gradual yet seemingly unstoppable decline of Labour
Voter flows since the election

Voter flows since the election

2. Theresa May still racks up a large lead in the 'Best PM' stakes.  While some argue that the incumbent always has the advantage in questions like this, it's useful to look at how voters think each party leader would do as Prime Minister.  As our political system - in campaigning terms, certainly - becomes more presidential, a party leader's personal popularity can matter even more than that of the party they lead.  Unfortunately for Jeremy Corbyn, then, this doesn't bode well.  While almost half - 48% - of all voters think that Theresa May would make the best Prime Minister, only 16% think the same about Jeremy Corbyn.  In fact, 'Not Sure' is currently 20 points ahead of the Labour leader.

3. Brexit dominates the debate.  In their poll, the guys at YouGov asked voters which 3 issues they thought were most important to the country.  Here are the results:

Issue

%

Brexit

64

Immigration & Asylum

46

Health

44

The economy

34

Housing

18

Brexit is clearly still the dish of the day for voters - with 64% of voters saying it was one of their top three most important issues.  Immigration and the NHS are - as usual - in battle for second and third places.  The economy is in fourth place at 34%, and housing is on 18%.  When people were asked which parties they trusted most on each issue, the responses were what we would expect: The Conservatives 'own' the issues of Brexit, immigration, and the economy, while Labour are seen as better on the NHS and housing.

4.  Labour isn't even on the Brexit battlefield.  On the subject of issue ownership, while it is usual for the Tories to perform better on Brexit, it's worth pausing and reflecting on one statistic: only 10% of voters think Labour is best placed to deliver on Brexit.  10%.  For the official opposition party.  On the most important issue of the day.

5. People haven't really changed their minds on Brexit, either.  Leave had a 4 percentage point lead over Remain on 23rd June - 52% to 48% - and that lead has dropped by 1 point in this latest poll.  But the broad trend for this Brexit hindsight polling is fairly clear: that if the referendum were re-run, the result would likely be the same.  Leavers aren't really regretting their choice - only 5% think we were wrong to vote to leave - while 87% of Remainers are confident they were right all along.

That's it, folks.  As ever, we hope you enjoyed this little roundup.  If you want to support our fledgling data journalism, please consider making a small donation.  Also, check out our Data Hub - a new project we're embarking on to provide interactive polling graphics; if you have any requests or feedback, let us know on pollingdigest@yahoo.com.

May and Corbyn: A cross section of their support

May and Corbyn: A cross section of their support

Would another referendum yield a different result?

Would another referendum yield a different result?