May vs Corbyn

May vs Corbyn

Today, YouGov have released their latest poll for The Times, and it gives the Tories an 18 point lead over Labour.  The Blues enjoy the support of 43% of the 1957 adults polled, once weighted for demographics and turnout, which is 2 points higher than last week.  Labour, meanwhile, polls at 25%, which is exactly what they got in the last YouGov poll.

As a result, the Tories now have a 17.5 point lead in the Polling Digest rolling average model.  This is the highest this Parliament.

But YouGov didn't just ask people how they intend to vote at the next election - they asked voters which leader of the two main parties they'd prefer to see as the next Prime Minister.

An astonishing 51% of all voters - a majority - said they'd prefer to see Theresa May stay on as Prime Minister after the next election.  This is her highest rating in this type of poll since October.  When she took over as Prime Minister, May enjoyed a period of about 3 months where, in these YouGov polls, over 50% voters had her as the preferred Prime Minister.  Towards the end of 2016, however, her ratings slid somewhat, and she ended December on 44% - still 28 points ahead of Jeremy Corbyn, but only 3 points ahead of Don't Know.  But her position in these 'Best PM' polls turned up slightly in the New Year, and we're now back to the 50+ level we saw when the Prime Minister took office in July.

The story isn't the same for Jeremy Corbyn.  Since being the opposite number to Theresa May, his position in these comparative polls have fallen at a fairly steady rate.  Even at the end of 2016, when Theresa May's popularity was falling, Corbyn's ratings didn't improve to fill the gap.  This latest poll, though, is the worst he's done: only 13% want him as the next Prime Minister.  Jeremy Corbyn is 21 points behind the Prime Minister and 15 points behind Don't Know.

Hang on, you might be thinking, Labour polls at 25% and yet only 13% want the party's leader to be the next Prime Minister?

Yeah, that's a pretty remarkable statistic, and lays out starkly just how unpopular the Labour leader is.

Let's dig down into some cross tabs:

Age

Class

Region

2015 vote

We really don't need to comment on these results - they speak for themselves.   Jeremy Corbyn polls behind Theresa May in every age group, every class, every region - and even among his party's own voters at the last election.  What's worse is that Corbyn polls behind Don't Know in every category, too...

Corbyn's Labour is much less popular with working class voters than Blair's Labour

Corbyn's Labour is much less popular with working class voters than Blair's Labour

Is this proof that Twitter is a left-wing echo chamber?

Is this proof that Twitter is a left-wing echo chamber?