Party time for the Tories?
As they do every month, ICM have released their poll for The Guardian. And, as is usual nowadays, it looks fairly terrible for Labour. But there's a whole load of other interesting data points, so in this quick digest, we've included 5 things from this poll we think you should know.
1. The Conservatives are 16 points ahead of Labour. The Conservatives, this poll suggests, are on 44%, with Labour on 28%; the Lib Dems and UKIP are on 8% and 11%, respectively, with the Greens on 5%. Though this is 2 points down from last month - Labour have moved up 2 with the Tories steady - this is still disastrous for an opposition party at this stage in the Parliament. Consider this: Polling Digest has a rolling average of historic Ipsos MORI polls going back to 1979, and the three Labour leaders who never became Prime Ministers - Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock, and Ed Miliband - all had a lead over the Conservatives at this point in the Parliament. Miliband's Labour had a 5.75 point lead over the Tories in Spring 2012, while even Michael Foot - who lost the 1983 election in a landslide - managed to hold a 6.25 point lead over Thatcher's Conservative party in April 1985. Currently, the Conservatives are 16.75 points ahead of Labour in our poll of polls. This is their largest lead in this Parliament.
2. Labour wins among younger voters - just. And the Conservatives win huge majorities among older voters. Take a look at the graphic below. Labour has a fairly comfortable lead of 7 point among voters aged between 18 and 24. In the next age group up, that lead is slashed to just 1 point. And from this point on, the Tories' leads just get bigger and bigger: while their lead among the 35-64 age group is a quite large 13 points, they dominate the oldest category, 65% to Labour's 13%.
3. Despite Labour's large deficit in the national polls, they have a large lead among non-white voters. While the Conservatives poll at 46% among white voters, way ahead of Labour's 25% points, Labour has a 16 point lead in the non-white demographic group: 44% to the Tories' 28%.
4. The Tories win among those in work and in retirement, while Labour wins among those not in work and students. Among both full time and part time workers, the Conservatives are 16 and 8 points ahead of Labour, respectively. Among voters who are not in work, Labour has a large 12 point lead, and has a huge 18 point lead among the student population.
5. The Conservatives lead Labour among both middle and working class voters. In the realm of political polling, this is fairly astonishing. That the Conservatives beat Labour among the higher social classes is baked into our expectations. The Tories' lead among C2 voters, while usually an extraordinary phenomenon, is also, in the age of Corbyn, a fairly normal occurrence. But for the Conservatives to lead Labour - albeit very narrowly- among the lowest DE socio-economic groups is extremely strange. If this continues, Labour is in deep trouble indeed. UKIP is still quite clearly a working class party: although it polls in the high single digits among middle class voters, it has the support of 13% of C2 voters and 14% of DE voters. The opposite is the case for the Liberal Democrats, who poll at 3% and 6% among the two working class groups (C2 and DE) but poll at 11% and 10% among the AB and C1 groups, respectively.
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