Voter Flows: YouGov, 5-6 April
Morning, folks! We hope you're enjoying the Easter break as much as we are. By the way, if you get bored over the next couple of days, do take a look at this Easter poll from YouGov - according to their survey, 76% associate Easter with chocolate eggs while just 55% associate it with Jesus Christ. And he's not the only JC to do badly in the polls...
Anyway, as you may know, YouGov released their latest poll a few days ago and we've spent some time trawling through the numbers on our Twitter feed. But here, we'd like to run through 7 very short data points about how voters have migrated between parties since the election.
1. The Conservatives are doing best at retaining their voters since the election. 91% of the Tories' 2015 voters intend to vote for the party at the next election, compared with 68% of 2015 Labour voters, 61% of previous Lib Dem voters and just 58% of UKIP's voters.
2. One third of UKIP's voters have migrated towards the Tories. That extremely low (58%) retention rate for UKIP now makes sense: a huge number of the parties voters have switched to Theresa May's Conservatives.
3. 2% of 2015 Lib Dem voters now intend to vote UKIP. No, we can't, either.
4. 9% of Labour's voters at the last election now intend to vote for the Tories. Just 2% of the Conservatives' previous voters now intend to vote Labour.
5. Of those voters who cast their votes for the Lib Dems at the last election and who are not now intending to do so, they split pretty evenly between the Tories and Labour. 16% of them intend to vote Conservative now, while 15% now intend to vote Labour.
6. 13% of previous Labour voters have switched to the Liberal Democrats.
7. For the Conservatives, UKIP has been the biggest beneficiary of the few defectors they have: 4% of 2015 Tories now say they will vote for the purples. For Labour, it's the Lib Dems (13% of their voters at the last election now report they will vote for Tim Farron's party). For the Lib Dems, it's the Conservatives (16%), and for UKIP, it's the Tories (33%).
No matter your party allegiance, we hope you enjoyed reading this analysis. At Polling Digest, it's our aim to provide you with interesting insights into public opinion, and we like to think we do a pretty good job of it. We're enormously grateful for all the support from you, dear reader, but there's one think we value more than your love, and that's your money. By sending us a donation - no matter how small - you can help us keep this enterprise cost-neutral by helping us to cover our hosting fees. The PayPal button is below and it's super-easy to use. Thanks for your help!