Voting Intentions: ICM

Voting Intentions: ICM

A couple of days ago, ICM released their usual end-of-month voting intention poll for the Guardian.  And, to be honest, there isn’t much to see here.

Conservatives

41

Labour

27

Liberal Democrats

9

UKIP

13

Green

4

 

1.       Conservatives increase their lead over Labour.  As has become almost routine now, the Conservatives have a double-digit lead over Labour.  In the last ICM poll taken in mid-August, their lead was 12 points (Conservatives on 40, Labour on 28).  This time around, the Tories have increased their headline voting intention by one point, and Labour have dropped one point.  As a result, the Conservative lead heading into September is 14 points.

2.       The Conservatives do less well when voters are sorted by age.  In the last ICM poll, the Conservatives lost the 18-24 age category, as usual, to Labour.  This time around, they lose the youth vote by a larger margin.  However, whereas the usual story is that the Conservatives win in all the other age groups (from 25 onwards), this time, they also lose the 25-34 age category to Labour by 6 points.  Keep watching this area of voting intention polls to see if there’s a significant trend going on here.

3.       There were lots of ‘Don’t Know’ responses in this poll.  As a result, it comes up with some quite dramatic results, like the halving of the Conservative support in the youngest age category.  But as it is the case across most data points and this is just one poll, it’s best to wait and see if the electorate really do feel unsure about their voting intention.  Generally, we at Polling Digest like to look at a minimum of four polls to judge a trend – to see our four-poll rolling average, click here.

4.       Overall, this is quite an unremarkable poll.  At least, it fits in with the current narrative.  The Tories have a double-digit lead, Labour wins the young vote but loses the older voters to the Tories, UKIP are hovering around the 10 percent mark with high areas of support among C2 voters and older voters, and Conservative support increases as go down the UK while Labour’s support increases as you go north.

For your perusal, below are some tables of the key data points we like to look at: age, class, and region/country.

Age

Conservatives

Labour

Lib Dem

UKIP

Green

18-24

15

42

2

5

6

25-34

21

27

8

6

5

35-64

28

21

7

10

4

65 and older

43

12

6

13

1

Class

Conservatives

Labour

Lib Dem

UKIP

Green

AB

39

21

9

7

4

C1

30

22

6

9

4

C2

22

21

4

14

2

DE

20

26

5

9

5

Region/Country

Conservatives

Labour

Lib Dems

UKIP

Green

Scotland

15

15

4

3

4

North

24

26

5

7

2

Midlands

28

20

5

11

5

South

33

22

8

11

4

Jeremy Corbyn is going to sweep the Labour leadership.  Again.

Jeremy Corbyn is going to sweep the Labour leadership. Again.

Were Labour ahead before the '#ChickenCoup'?

Were Labour ahead before the '#ChickenCoup'?